The European Yearling Market 2024

The curtains have started to come down on European Yearling Sales for 2024, with only the Arqana November and Tattersalls December Sales remaining. Focus now starts to move towards the Foal Sales at Goffs and Tattersalls at the end of November.

At racing² we track a series of metrics across the market in terms of market strength and profitability, covering individual sales, sires and consignors.

Here’s our view on how the European yearling market shaped up in 2024 as we approach those final two sales.

Overall Market Metrics

Since the Arqana August sale we’ve seen 6,784 yearlings offered at sales across Europe. Of those, 5,741 were sold through the ring. That’s a ratio of yearlings sold to offered of 84.63%. Overall the clearance rate was good across the market.

Perhaps a more sobering figure is the fact that we only observed 3,825 yearlings being sold for a sales price above their original service fee, a return of 56.32%. That’s also not including keep (which we would calculate from foal to yearling at £15k), just a raw comparison of sales price vs. service fee, all convered back to GBP to allow for analysis. Of course, breeders and consignors may well be retaining these horses to race and be happy to do so. But for those breeding to sell, the 2024 market was not the most positive.

Across all sales the average sales price in Euro was €81,478, the median sales price €29,000. In GBP, the average sales price was £69,953 and median £24,600.

Males were slightly more popular than the Females in terms of clearance rate; 85.38% colts selling through the ring vs. 83.80% fillies. Although vendors may be happier to retain the fillies as breeding prospects.

The Fillies returned a Median Sales Price across all sales of £21,320 vs. £28,700 for the colts.

Metrics by sale show the distinct picture between the elite yearling sales (Arqana August, Goffs Orby, Tatts Book 1 & 2) comparative to the middle-market. Clearance was up around the high 80s-90% market with the return above service fee in the 70-80% band. The middle and lower parts of the market were much tougher, with clearance running around 60-70% and the sales price returns above service fee mostly in the 40-60% range.

In terms of profitability metrics, the situation was again similar at the elite yearling sales. Tattersalls Book 1 returned the highest average and median profitability per yearling, at £241,406 average and £139,000. Breeders could make a profit at Arqana August and Tatts Book 2, but elsewhere in the market you would be struggling. Especially once keep was included.

Sire Profitability

You could argue that Frankel had a quiet year on the track this season, Lake Victoria aside. But that didn’t hinder his returns in the sales ring.

Of sires with >10 yearlings offered he returned the highest average profit per yearling at £333,627. Dubawi won out on Median, with £146,375. Night of Thunder 2nd ranked on median return per yearling with £123,200.

Unsurpsingly, Havana Grey tops the profitability index for sires this year. Doing remarkable things from a £6,000 fee, returning an average profit of £62,664 per yearling and median profit of £29,100.

In a strange quirk of fate, it is Territories who features in second on our Profitability Index for sires across Europe 2024. Despite the fact that he has just been sold off to stand at Poonawalla Stud Farms in India.

Yearlings conceived off his 2022 stud fee of £10,000 returned a yearling sale price average of £58,998 and median of £20,500. Of 33 offered, 29 were sold through the ring at a respectable 87.88% clearance rate, with 20 of those (60.61%) selling above their service fee. His Profitability Index score was 36.78.

Sergei Prokofiev yearlings enjoyed a strong showing in the ring, backing up the positive returns on the track from his first crop. Clearance Rate was strong at 86.52%, with a average sales price of £34,644 and median of £22,960 from a £6,000 fee. The 2025 fee of £8,000 at Whitsbury Manor certainly still gives breeders potential commercial upside.

Of first-crop yearling sires, Victor Lodorum topped our rankings. Returning an average sales price of £44,516 and median £24,520 from a £12,300 fee. A’Ali and Space Blues also enjoyed positive starts commercially.

Consignor Profitability

Kilkenny-based Lodge Park Stud topped our Profitability Index across the consignor population in Europe this sales season. Helped no doubt by the Wootton Bassett Book 1 sale topper at 4,300,000gns. That helped their average profit per yearling up to £221,924. Median was a bit more sober at £20,350. But with a clearance of 24/25 at 96.00% they had a good year.

Grangemore Stud had a good sales season. Offering 24 yearlings, selling 22, a clearance rate of 91.67%. They returned an average sales price of £229,041, median of £81,850 vs. an average service fee of yearlings offered of £27,583. Grangemore returned an average profit per yearling of £182,371 and median profit across each yearling of £44,550.

Against the backdrop of a tough economic climate for yearling sales, kudos to those consignors managing to consistently punch above.

Main Findings

The yearling market continues to be strong at the upper echelons; the elite sires at the elite sales. We find it a significantly more challenging environment for the smaller breeders and smaller vendors who would offer outside the flagship sales.

Smaller breeders operating at lower service fees would seem to be better focussing on breeding to race rather than breeding to sell based on current market conditions.

The elite sires; Frankel, Dubawi, Night of Thunder, Lope de Vega, Zarak, Siyouni, Too Darn Hot, Kingman, Blue Point, continue to deliver very solid commercial returns. For breeders with a good enough mare to send to these sires and pockets deep enough to handle the service fee they present a good chance of commercial returns. Even after keep has been incorporated.

Hot 2yo sires also showed as profitable in the market, but you have to get in ahead of the curve. The game is to find the next Havana Grey, Sioux Nation or Sergei Prokofiev.

Our main strategy would be to work from two angles;

• Reliable Elite Sires

• Finding the next hot 2yo sire (Havana Grey, Sioux Nation, Sergei Prokofiev)

Beyond these, it’s a tough market.
—

For our full 2024 European Yearling Market Report and access to the data you can contact racingsquared@gmail.com. Cost for the report is £50 / €60.