Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby: How we rated the main contenders as yearlings?
The Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby has taken shape over the course of the past week, with a number of key trials being held and a further series coming over the course of this weekend.
Sandman currently leads the standings with 129 points, having won the Arkansas Derby and placed in several earlier preps. Tiztastic follows with 119 points, claiming the Louisiana Derby and placing consistently throughout the season. Tappan Street sits third with 110 points after a strong win in the Florida Derby. Final Gambit, winner of the Jeff Ruby, holds 100 points.
The final wave of crucial prep races—Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, and Blue Grass Stakes, will all run on April 5, each offering 100 points to the winner. Results from these trials will finalize the 20-horse field for the 151st Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 03rd.
We have been producing yearling ratings in the US for the past couple of years, and this current 3yo crop were the first group of horses that we evaluated through our biomechanic software for the US. Casting our eye back to 2023 we can retrospectively review how we graded the current Kentucky Derby contenders when we saw them as yearlings.
I’d like to make it very clear that we were not involved in the sourcing of any of these horses. I like to do these retrospective studies to compare the performance of our yearling ratings as we scored them at the time of sale vs. how they subsequently perform on track.
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Antepost Favourite:
Journalism 5/1
Journalism has emerged as a leading Kentucky Derby contender after an impressive three-year-old campaign, winning three of his four starts, including the Los Alamitos Futurity and the San Felipe Stakes. In the latter, he earned a 108 Beyer Speed Figure, one of the highest of the season.
He was a $825,000 purchase by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners from Denali Stud at the 2023 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Yearling Sale. Our biomechanic ratings had him highly rated at the sale; scoring 95.53 / 100, which is a very high A grade on our rating system.
Our Yearling Biomechanic Rating : 95.53 / 100 [A]
Here he is below parading pre-sale.
Verdict: Good job. Biomechanic ratings managed to identify a leading contender for the 2025 Kentucky Derby as a yearling back in 2023 ✅
Citizen Bull 8/1
Citizen Bull brings incredibly strong credentials from his juvenile season, including a win in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Trained by John Sadler, he picked up where he left off by winning the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes in February. He’s won four of five career starts and has proven himself at the elite level already in this early part of his career.
Offered by Taylor Made Sales Agency, he was a $675,000 purchase at the 2023 Keeneland September Yearling Sale by Donato Lanni on behalf of SF Bloodstock/Starlight Racing/Madaket Stables.
Unfortunately for me, Citizen Bull is clearly already much better than the biomechanic rating we had for him as a yearling. Our model scored him 63.65 / 100, which equates to a B on our rating scale. Clearly, as a Breeders Cup Juvenile winner and leading contender for the Kentucky Derby he’s much better than that.
Verdict: not a complete miss, but our model could have done better. Must improve next time
Here he is parading as a yearling:
The next two in the market at both homebreds so we didn’t have them evaluated as yearlings; Luxor Cafe 10/1 & Sovereignty 10/1.
Tappan Street 12/1
Tappan Street has had a quick rise through the ranks, with two wins and one second from three starts. After winning on debut in December, he finished second in the Holy Bull Stakes, then stepped up with a commanding win in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
He’s a complete miss on our part and we didn’t find him at all as a yearling. He scored 19.45 / 100 on our biomechanics model, which equates to a D grade. Clearly he’s much much better than that. The market didn’t agree with us either, as he was a $1,000,000 purchase by CHC/Siena Farm/Maverick Racing at the 2023 Fasig Tipton Saratoga Sale.
Verdict: we completed missed and must do better next time. FAIL ❌
Opera Ballo 16/1
UK-based Opera Ballo is next in the antepost market that i am looking at, priced at 16/1. He won the European Road to the Kentucky Derby Conditions Stakes on February 26, 2025, by four lengths and sits undefeated after two starts. This victory earned him 20 points on the European Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, placing him among the top qualifiers from Europe, albeit that it’s unconfirmed whether he would take up a trip to Churchill Downs or focus on the Classics closer to home.
As a yearling we had him rated as 81.78 / 100 on biomechanic scores, which equates to A on our grading scale.
Verdict: would class that one as a HIT. A grader identified as a yearling out of a first season sire in Ghaiyyath ✅
Barnes 20/1
Barnes began his racing career with a maiden victory at Churchill Downs in November 2024. He then won the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita on January 4, 2025, leading throughout the seven-furlong race to secure a 5½-length victory. In his first attempt at two turns, Barnes competed in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on March 1, 2025, finishing second to 5/1 favourite here, Journalism.
He was a $3,200,000 purchase by Donato Lanni for Zedan Racing at the 2023 Fasig Tipton Saratoga Sale, where we had him rated 89.17 / 100 on biomechanics, which is another A grade.
Verdict: another Kentucky Derby prospect identified as a yearling as A on biomechanics ✅
Other interesting horses of note:
Cornucopian
A $1,100,000 purchase by Donato Lanni for SF Bloodstock/Starlight Racing/Madaket Stables from Gainesway at Keeneland September. Cornucopian is a bay colt sired by Into Mischief out of Magical World.
He made an impressive debut on February 23, 2025, at Oaklawn Park, winning a six-furlong maiden race by 5¾ lengths, recording a swift time of 1:09.02 and earning a 108 Equibase Speed Figure.
On his last start, Cornucopian ran in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on March 29, 2025, marking his first attempt at both graded stakes competition and a two-turn race. Despite his inexperience, he was installed as the 7-5 morning-line favorite. Cornucopian set a fast early pace, which seemed to ultimately be his undoing, finishing fourth behind winner Sandman, runner-up Publisher, and third-place Coal Battle.
As of April 2, 2025, Cornucopian has accumulated 15 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, placing him 35th. With the Kentucky Derby field limited to 20 starters, Cornucopian would need additional points to secure a spot in the starting gate. Connections may consider entering him in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 12, 2025, which offers 20 points to the winner, as a final opportunity to qualify
As a yearling we had him rated 90.73 / 100 [A] on biomechanics at Keeneland September.
Rodriquez
Rodriguez, a dark bay or brown colt sired by Authentic out of Cayala, began his career with a second-place finish in a maiden special weight race at Del Mar on November 23, 2024. He then secured his first victory in a one-mile maiden race at Santa Anita on January 4, 2025, winning by seven lengths and earning a 105 Equibase Speed Figure. Stepping up to stakes competition, Rodriguez finished second to stablemate Citizen Bull in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on February 1, 2025. He then placed third behind Journalism in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on March 1, 2025.
To accumulate sufficient points for Kentucky Derby qualification, trainer Bob Baffert has entered Rodriguez in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct on April 5, 2025.
He was a $485,000 purchase by Donato Lanni for SF Bloodstock/Starlight Racing/Madaket Stables (again ! ) from Indian Creek at Keeneland September.
We had Rodriguez rated as a 93.66 / 100, A grade on biomechanics as a yearling at the sale.
We didn’t have a yearling rating for the following horses that are fairly high up in the Antepost market; Final Gambit (Homebred), Sandman (offered as a 2yo at OBS March), Tiztastic (we just didn’t evaluate a video on him).
Overall i think we did a pretty good job at identifying Kentucky Derby prospects as yearlings. From 7 leading contenders, we scored 5 of them as “As” on biomechanics as yearlings, with one rated a B and only one completed missing the mark with a D.
SIDE NOTE: HOW GOOD IS INTO MISCHIEF BY THE WAY !!
If you’re interested in further details you can always find us at racingsquared@gmail.com